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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."